by Majella Arago
Government officials say that after the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) in Metro Manila, a general community quarantine (GCQ) will be imposed. But considerations and circumstances remain. Are we ready to be placed under GCQ? What if a second wave or a bigger outbreak occurs? Were we able to flatten the curve?
To flatten the curve and combat the spread of the virus, the World Health Organization (WHO) has appealed that we must prioritize conducting mass testing. However, the number of confirmatory PCR (polymerase chain reaction) tests being conducted by our health authorities remains to be frustratingly very low. The current data do not indicate the bigger COVID-19 picture on which experts can base future actions. The WHO says we need to test about 2 percent of our total population of 104 million (2.08 million). And in the case of Metro Manila, which has almost 13 million people, we should test at least another 2 percent, or around 260,000 individuals.
The Department of Health (DOH) through the Research Institute for Tropical Medicine (RITM) and regional laboratories conducted 5,263 tests on May 3 and 4,501 the day before that, way below its promised 8,000 tests as of April 30.
According to reports, the RITM is working to meet the target even after a number of its health workers and medical practitioners were found positive for the coronavirus.
The Philippine Red Cross is filling the enormous gap with its COVID-19 testing centers, situated in Mandaluyong and Metro Manila. These two laboratories can process 8,000 tests a day. In a radio interview, Sen. Richard Gordon says they are receiving swab tests from Mandaluyong, Parañaque, and Makati, but he wants more to maximize their machines’ capability. They are targeting 32,000 tests a day with the opening of more laboratories in Subic, Clark, Cebu, Butuan, Davao, and Zamboanga.
They are now conducting COVID-19 tests on 30,000 sea-based and 11,000 land-based overseas Filipino workers, who recently arrived and are now on a 14-day quarantine.
“We are not bending the curve,” cautions infectious disease specialist Dr. Benjamin Co. DOH’s website has a linear graph of daily new cases, recoveries, and deaths. In Dr. Co’s blog, a logarithmic scale shows the doubling time of infectees. From an exponential growth every 7.2 days as of May 1, decision-makers can plot weeks ahead.
Dr. Co calls for wider testing. Limiting it to “only patients with severe symptoms [will] miss the majority – those with mild or no symptoms” who can be spreading disease, he says. “The quality of these numbers ... has ramifications on contact tracing, isolation, and workup of patients.
”The implementation of GCQ has already been finalized and its guidelines spread, however, without mass testing and contact tracing to seek out every exposed person, this lifting of ECQ would pose a tremendous risk to the Filipinos. With the continuously rising and overwhelming number of positive cases in the country, a better and more systematic approach towards the management and containment of the virus must be ensured.
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